Clive P. Maund
gold, silver, & oil shares


SILVER STOCKS update...

originally published July 20th, 2009

Coeur d`Alene CDE (CDM.TSX) $12.08

We are up somewhat with Coeur since buying it back on 21st June. It continues to look attractive here with a potent price/moving average alignment and positive volume and On-balance Volume. Holders should stay long and fresh purchases are in order. Stop at $9.85.


ECU Silver ECU.TO (ECUXF) C$0.56

ECU is at a very favorable "buy spot" here, having been hammered back from the high above 85 cents in early June to support in the 50 cent area where it is now turning up. Although the 200-day moving average is still falling steeply we are now seeing an increasingly tight bunching of the price of principal moving averages that is conducive to an upside breakout and major change of trend. We bought back into ECU too early at 62 cents a few weeks ago. Holders should stay long and fresh purchases are in order. Stop at C$0.49


Endeavour Silver EDR.TO (EXK) C$2.11

We are already up with Endeavour which we bought back on 21st June and which has risen sharply over the past week. Looks good here with a favorable price/moving average alignment and volume pattern. There is substantial resistance above C$3.00, so profits should be taken as the price approaches C$3.00. Holders should stay long and fresh purchases are in order. Stop below the recent low in the C$1.65 area.


Fortuna Silver FVI.V (FVITF) C$0.96

We could have picked Fortuna up at a better price if we'd bought back early in July instead of around 21st June. However, that said it is now at about the same price as where we bought and its technical condition continues to improve significantly. We now have a very favorable price/moving average alignment and the volume pattern has become strongly bullish with high upside volume over the past week driving the On-balance Volume indicator to a new high so that Fortuna is now believed to be in position to break out upside from the long Pan & Handle base area that started to form back last October. Holders should of course stay long, and fresh purchases are very much in order. This is one to go overweight on. Heavy resistance comes in above C$1.80, which will be the area to think about taking profits. Stop below recent low, i.e. at about C$0.73.


Hecla Mining HL $2.95

Hecla is up somewhat from where we bought back in on 21st June. It is well placed to embark on a significant advance with the price and moving averages in favorable alignment. It appears to be just turning up again following a period of reaction after it broke out from a Double Bottom that developed between November and March. There is plenty of upside potential especially as there is no serious overhanging supply until it rises above $7 - $8. Holders should stay long and fresh purchases are in order. Stop below the recent low at about $2.20.


Impact Silver IPT.V C$0.62

Although there has been little change in the price of Impact since we bought back in at C$0.64 on 21st June, a positive looking technical pattern has become evident on its chart. A Symmetrical Triangle has formed above the 50-day moving average, with a most satisfactory steady decline in volume that points to an imminent upside breakout. On a larger scale it appears to be close to breaking out upside from a completing Pan & Handle base area, with breakout being signalled by a close about C$0.75. Once it breaks out it should perform well, although traders should note that there is strong resistance above C$1.50, and be ready to take profits once it approaches this level. Holders should stay long and fresh purchases are in order. It is difficult to be specific about stop levels as there is nearby support over a wide range, so stops should be placed according to personal preference regarding loss tolerance.


Minco Silver MSV.TSX $1.74

We got caught out by Minco Silver which did contrary to what was expected and broke down from its triangle pattern and below its 50-day moving average. However, the damage has not been too serious and nothing has broken on the larger picture. What has happened is that it has dropped back to test support at the C$1.50 level above its rising 200-day moving average. On Friday it tested the support again, before going on to put in a strong close, leaving behind a large bullish hammer on its chart. It therefore continues to be regarded as attractive. Holders should stay long and fresh purchases are in order. Stop just below the clear support at C$1.50, say at C$1.47


Silver Wheaton SLW (SLW.TSX), $8.48

Although it now looks set to rise along with the sector, Silver Wheaton is not liked so much here, on account of its recently breaking down from an uptrend that we had earlier delineated, in addition to the fact that there is heavy resistance approaching $12. It is a shade below the point at which we re-entered on 21st June. Holders can either stay long or switch. No new purchases are recommended as other stocks are preferred.


Silvermex SMR.V C$0.18

Silvermex has dropped by 25% since we sold it on 4th June

Silvermex continues to look like it is shaping up for a major advance. There has been heavy upside volume over the past 6 weeks that has driven up the On-balance Volume line. The price and moving averages are very tightly bunched with the 200-day moving average flattening out after falling for over a year, suggesting that a big move is close at hand, which should be to the upside, given the recent volume action and the appearance of a bullish hammer on the chart on Friday. Holders should stay long and fresh purchases are in order. Stop below the recent intraday low at C$0.15.


Tumi Resources TM.V C$0.15

Tumi is believed to be at a good entry point here as it appears to be close to a cyclical low after a gentle downtrend that has persisted since early May. Volume and OBV are strongly positive, and the stock is at a low price after the trashing it suffered during 2007 and 2008. Holders should stay long and fresh purchases are in order. Note that Tumi is thinly traded at times. It is difficult to be specific about stop levels as there is nearby support over a wide range, so stops should be placed according to personal preference regarding loss tolerance.


US Silver USA.V (CYLPF) C$0.13

US Silver has lost more ground since we bought back in prematurely on 21st June, but recent price/volume action suggests that it is bottoming. However, the break below the line of support at 15 cents earlier this month was an unwelcome development, especially as it got turned back abruptly when it tried to break above this level a few days ago. For this reason no new purchases are recommended until it gets above this level and stays above it. That said the overall picture remains reasonably favorable and holders can stay long for improvement.

Finally it should be noted that two important silver stocks not in the above list, and which we have not followed in the recent past, namely Pan American Silver (PAAS) and Silver Standard (SSRI), have also turned higher over the past week or so, meaning that they should now rally. However, both these stocks are afflicted with a big supply overhang above the $25 level on both charts, which is why we are not so interested in them.

All prices are for the close of trading on 17th July 09.