originally published Tuesday, September 24, 2019

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All Latest US Stockmarket Update

The Democrats never came to terms with losing the 2016 election to Trump and it has festered and rankled with them ever since. Deep State candidate and the world’s worst loser Hillary Clinton even wrote a massively self-indulgent and trite “post mortem” on the election called "What Happened” – it’s hard to imagine who would be dumb enough to waste their time reading such drivel.

Ever since Donald Trump became President, the Democrats have been trying to oust him. Their big gambit during his first years in office was the Russiagate hoax. By rights, those responsible for this should all be behind bars, but the system is so crooked that is never going to happen. I had thought that upon failure of the Russiagate hoax they would give it a rest until the next election, but today we have news delivered by Madame Tussaud’s escapee Nancy Pelosi that they are going to try to impeach Trump, over some interaction with the Ukrainian President. Pelosi talks sanctimoniously about “defending and protecting our Constitution” but the fact is that she has left it way too late for that, because it was trashed and rendered obsolete by the Patriot Acts which were one of the “fruits” of 9-11, that have left the Constitution as a museum piece. If she is serious about defending the Constitution, or more accurately reinstating it, she should concentrate on rescinding these heinous and treasonous Acts, rather than trying to hound the democratically elected President out of office.

Should the Democrat’s attempts to kick Trump out of the office of Presidency start to look like they have any hope of success, it could turn out to be the “black swan” that takes down the stockmarket, which as we can see on the charts below is a giant bubble in search of a pin.

On the 3-year chart for the Dow Jones Industrials we can see that it looks tired and toppy, and it is remarkable how long it has held up, which is due to the Fed going to extraordinary extremes to stop the bubble from popping. We can see a clear line of tops going back January 2018, and with today’s news we could now see some serious downside develop, especially as interest rates have turned higher again. The only thing that might save it and usher in a final parabolic blowoff would be if the Fed suddenly wheeled out QE4, but right now it is looking very vulnerable, especially if the movement to impeach Trump gains traction. One possibility is that the Fed lets the market’s crash and then uses the crash as justification for QE4.

The “shop window” indices, like the Dow Jones Industrials and the S&P500 index, which looks quite similar to the DJIA, look bad enough, but other less watched indices like the S&P400 Mid-cap (not shown) and the Russell 2000 Small Cap, shown below, look considerably worse, with giant irregular Head-and-Shoulders tops completing.

The markets don’t like uncertainty, but with this movement to impeach Trump possibly about to gain traction, that looks like what they may be about to get, in spades. If so, then the markets could quickly go into crash mode. So, with the main indices still relatively close to their recent highs, this may be a good time to consider short positions and Puts etc. Crash mode would be expected to be triggered by failure of the key support shown on the Russell 2000 chart. If this support is breached it may be best to step aside even from the PM sector or hedge as a mass liquidation event will leave very little unscathed.

End of update.

Posted at 9.50 pm EDT on September 19.