The Precious Metals sector is believed to be in the process of reversing to the upside after a 2-month intermediate downtrend. As we can see on the 6-month chart for GDX below, this downtrend occurred at a time when the broadd market – see the S&P500 index shown at the top of this chart – was advancing, implying that investors were not too worried and were chasing gains in the broad market, assisted no doubt by the Fed creating money to drive the market higher. From here on it looks like the sector should flip back to the upside because if the broad market continues to advance, it should play catchup and if the broad market reverses to the downside it will likely mean that the fear factor is back in play, so just as the sector has been contra-cyclical since early May, it should continue to be contra-cyclical and rally as the broad market drops.
The downtrend in GDX has morphed into a bullish Falling Wedge, with downside momentum waning, which is shown by the new low late last week not being confirmed by momentum (MACD) and with it being close to its rising 200-day moving average this is a very good point for it to reverse to the upside.
Now we’ll quickly look at a couple of mid to large-cap gold stocks that look like they are in the early stages of reversing to the upside…
Royal Gold, RGLD, $116.38
Royal Gold has broken out of its orderly parallel downtrend and is now advancing smartly from quite deeply oversold. This advance should continue, with minor pullbacks. Anyone holding should therefore stay long and it is rated a buy here and especially on any minor pullbacks.
Victoria Gold, VGCX.TSX, VITFF on OTC, C$7.72, $5.90
The downtrend in Victoria Gold from early May has taken the form of a quite strongly converging bullish Falling Wedge and with downside momentum having eased – the latest low was not confirmed by momentum (MACD) – and the Accumulation line having held up relatively well on the decline, it looks ready to break out upside from this Wedge soon, so anyone holding should stay long and it is rated a buy here.
Since the stocks in this sector, especially the large and mid-cap ones, tend to move together like a herd of sheep, it means that most of them are buys now. These are just 2 examples.
End of update.
Posted at 12.00 noon EDT on 3rd July 23.